Just to add that despite the fact that this will probably be the case, the Turkish President has every reason to raise his voice, because maybe this way he also gains something in his rather very difficult attempt to govern again after the elections.
Think tanks: 15% probability of nuclear use in Ukraine
-Otherwise, the world is anxiously watching the escalation of tension in the Ukraine war, as it becomes clear that from now on Putin and his regime will only get worse, always at risk of pushing the nuclear button, even if somewhat shorter range, but still nuclear. In fact, various think tanks that study the issue say that the chances of him doing so are now around 15%. A great rate for such a risk, my brother…
The Levant cousin and the blind may be Djokovic
-In ours, I want to record two things that I did not like at all in the past week. The remark of his cousin George Tsipras in his appearance on TV yesterday with Adonis Georgiadis, who said – about a positive article by the FT about the Greek economy – that “either the editor gets it or he takes drugs”, you really don’t easily find a description. A mixture of empathy and stupidity together, which of course, usually, fit perfectly. It only hurts him. Equally incomprehensible is Adonidos’s obsession with his tennis performances, and especially that he proclaims them publicly. It also only hurts him.
Two foreigners in Tripoli
-But last week, specifically on Friday, the 124th Basic Training Wing of the Air Force in Tripoli experienced greatness, during the swearing-in of the new officers. And this as among them were the sons of Antonis Samaras, Dimitris Avramopoulos, as well as the MP of N.D. Vassilis Oikonomou. What I learned is that it did not go unnoticed that President Antonis, accompanied by his ever-elegant wife Georgia, attended the swearing-in ceremony together with the “ordinary people”, i.e. the relatives of the other conscripts. On the contrary, Dimitris Avramopoulos, together with his wife Vivian, preferred the platform of the officials. In fact, upon his departure, the former Commissioner greeted those gathered… from afar. However, the two once (2009) initially claimants – as Avramopoulos subsequently resigned in favor of Samaras – for the leadership of the ND, did not even exchange a nod. As for the experienced MP – since the ND it is the third party in which he serves, after PASOK and DIMAR- V. Oikonomou, he knows about mischief and chose to attend the event together with the rest of the people.
Did they see us?
-I want to reflect for a minute: The institutions are coming to us with the SRB having eaten glue that the banks must issue 500 million bonds this year in the context of MREL. We are waiting for Eurostat towards the end of the month to find out what will happen with Herakles’ debt and guarantees. The Supreme Court blocked the auctions that the servicers do on behalf of the funds and they are now running for the appropriate amendment. Herakles is out of the battle in the intensive, with Piraeus left with some queues of securitizations and the National Team waiting for Frontier II. So I have the right to wonder: Have we been looked at? All of a sudden, so much crap packed together?
The strict Enrias and the script for the guarantees of Hercules
– In order not to be unfair to them, in the meantime the banks are doing everything in their power to cope. From November 9 to 12, the systemic banks will announce 9-month results, and their “study” suggests good news. Greek banks will show at least 3 quarters of high operating profitability, without serious problems of bad loans, mainly due to the growth momentum shown by the Greek Economy. On the other hand, Enria – in all his meetings with Greek bankers – has cut off any desire to distribute dividends and bonuses, at least until things calm down in Europe. Of course, it is still too early to say that the issue is closed for good, because the final discussions will take place before the June assemblies, so we still have several months of consultations, although the circumstances do not allow for much optimism. In fact, there is a scenario circulating that, in return, the ECB will help so that again this year (like last year) the 19 billion “Hercules” loans do not burden the public debt. I wish it would be confirmed…
Moody’s: Fezs are coming for 9 European banks
-However, it went relatively unnoticed that Moody’s issued a resounding warning about the profitability of businesses and the effects on European banks, due to the increase in energy costs. As the rating agency informed us, the prospect of a recession is now likely in Europe and many companies may not be able to repay their debts, with a direct impact on banks that have problematic loans in their portfolio. Specifically, Moody’s sees risks in at least nine European banks, in Italy for Banco Bpm, Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit, in Germany for Commerzbank, Bayerische Landesbank, Landesbank Hessen, Thueringen Gz and Landesbank Baden and in Austria for Raiffeisen.
The background for “El. Venizelos”
-Mobility and interesting background we have for the airport “El. Venizelos”. A line has been lowered and everyone is coordinating so that by March 31, 2023 the shares of EL. VEN. to be traded on the ASE. In this context, they hired Morgan Stanley and BofA to run the relevant procedures. At the same time, however, the competition for the privatization of EL. VEN, which attracted 7 serious players, has been running for 1.5 years. Two processes at the same time, you will wonder – and you are right. Apparently they “forgot” to cancel the tender process. The Government pointed to the ASE for EL. VEN by setting a limit at the end of March and it probably did well, with the rationale of strengthening the capital market and dispersing the ownership of the airport. Totally understandable, but there are two side effects: First, it’s not a good time for the stock market. Big stores, in defense sectors and in international markets that have a lot of liquidity are postponing their planning due to the negative international situation. So the one question is when would the Government collect more? With the choice of the AX or with that of the direct sale? (s.s. the argumentation that the choice of the AX, even if it yields less income, will have wider benefits for the capital market in the medium term) is fully accepted.
Morgan Stanley and BofA to “bleed the shirt”
-The second issue is that with the choice of introducing EL. VEN to the Stock Exchange, it essentially passes into the control of its current shareholders, that is, the Canadians and the Kopelouzo group. Both, with the listing on the AXA, are obliged to offer a new package of shares at the sale price to be determined. Cumulatively in this case, their percentage will probably be only slightly different from 51%. The two existing shareholders, either through purchase or in collaboration with a fund, will essentially have full control of EL. VEN. And if you are wondering what is the right thing to do, the column does not know, nor is it its job to know such matters. However, as things stand, Morgan Stanley and BofA will definitely have to “bleed the jersey” to achieve a high valuation that satisfies.
Autohellas super return of capital (1 euro – net).
-The last few years have been very strong for Autohellas, after a difficult period due to a pandemic in which the Vasilakis family fully supported the company, with a significant increase in financial sizes. Thus, next Friday it is expected to be approved in an extraordinary General Assembly. the management’s proposal for a capital return of 1 euro – net – to the shareholders. The lion’s share goes to Eutychis Vassilakis who, through MAIN STREAM SA, owns 61.16% of the listed company, a percentage corresponding to 29.7 million shares. In addition to the main and other shareholders, the coffers of several institutions that own shares of the listed company, which in the first half of the year recorded a new record high in turnover and profitability, will be filled. This is how, with a record, the year will close since due to the seasonality of tourism, the second half has a significantly greater participation in the company’s overall profitability for the year. Note that with a steadily increasing performance of the Autohellas share (+12.61% since the beginning of the year), Autohellas is now valued at 495 million market value, greater than 4 listed companies of the FTSELarge Cap (ADMIE, PPA, Quest, Sarantis) which ensures a “major index” position in the next FTSE Russell restructuring.
ADMIE: Business is at its peak, stock market at its nadir
– There is lively interest in “Ariadni” (the Attica-Crete electricity interconnection company). On the contrary, the interest in the ADMIE share on the Athens Stock Exchange is at a minimum. While for the specific project there is a crowding of names such as Macquarie Super Core Infrastructure Fund-Phaethon Holdings, GEK TERNA, (the Italian) Terna Spa and (the Chinese) State Grid (Belgium) and indeed for 20% (of “Ariadnis”) for the stock investors are looking for with… binoculars. Indicative is the fact that after Friday’s new correction (with 1.34% to 1.622 euros) the losses for the share reach a total of 32.84% (!) since the beginning of the year, during which the General Index FTSELarge Cap loses 8.80% and 9.13%. Consistency; the valuation of the Electricity Manager to be limited to 376.3 million euros.
Problems with cars
– In the Greek market, car sales are moving impressively, at pre-memorandum crisis levels. In the European automobile industry, however, the production engine is seriously ill. Orders are being processed with a long delay. Cars are delivered with significant deficiencies in their basic equipment. Electric cars are delivered… without charging cables which new owners have to buy separately and with… the dropper. Importers are at odds with their customers and lawsuits are pouring in. Both abroad and at home…
Stock markets open dazed by Wall Street’s plunge
-Without a doubt and based on all indicators, European stocks today, with the help of the dollar, are overwhelmingly cheaper than their American counterparts. American administrators, however, avoid them. Main argument of their abstinence, Credit Risk. They think that the high volatility in the bond market can create a serious debt problem in a European economy (say with Italy) that will cause an avalanche of bankruptcies. This may not happen. But they believe it is better to buy more expensively in the bullish phase than to risk their precious dollars now. However, the negative climate on Wall Street on Friday will certainly have a negative impact on the start of Monday in Europe…